Alfonso Sastre. Tragedia y realismo social. Una propuesta de Revolución Cultural (Spanish Edition)
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This paper is concerned with the situation that occurs in claims reserving when there are negative values in the development triangle of incremental claim amounts. Typically these negative values will be the result of salvage recoveries, payments from third parties, total or partial cancellation of outstanding claims due to initial overestimation of the loss or to a possible favorable jury decision in favor of the insurer, rejection by the insurer, or just plain errors.
Some of the traditional methods of claims reserving, such as the chain-ladder technique, may produce estimates of the reserves even when there are negative values. Historically the chain-ladder method has been used as a gold standard benchmark because of its generalized use and ease of application. This paper presents a Bayesian model to consider negative incremental values, based on a three-parameter log-normal distribution. The model presented here allows the actuary to provide point estimates and measures of dispersion, as well as the complete distribution for outstanding claims from which the reserves can be derived.
It is concluded that the method has a clear advantage over other existing methods. The BMOM is particularly useful for obtaining post-data moments and densities for parameters and future observations when the form of the likelihood function is unknown and thus a traditional Bayesian approach cannot be used. Also, even when the form of the likelihood is assumed known, in time series problems it is sometimes difficult to formulate an appropriate prior density.
Here, we show how the BMOM approach can be used in two, nontraditional problems. The first one is conditional forecasting in regression and time series autoregressive models. Specifically, it is shown that when forecasting disaggregated data say quarterly data and given aggregate constraints say in terms of annual data it is possible to apply a Bayesian approach to derive conditional forecasts in the multiple regression model.
The types of constraints conditioning usually considered are that the sum, or the average, of the forecasts equals a given value. This kind of condition can be applied to forecasting quarterly values whose sum must be equal to a given annual value. Analogous results are obtained for AR p models. The second problem we analyse is the issue of aggregation and disaggregation of data in relation to predictive precision and modelling. Predictive densities are derived for future aggregate values by means of the BMOM based on a model for disaggregated data.
They are then compared with those derived based on aggregated data. En este trabajo se analiza el problema en el contexto de muestreo por conglomerados. Se presenta un estimador puntual y uno para la varianza del total. The problem of estimating the accumulated value of a positive and continuous variable for which some partially accumulated data has been observed, and usually with only a small number of observations two years , can be approached taking advantage of the existence of stable seasonality from one period to another.
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For example the quantity to be predicted may be the total for a period year and it needs to be made as soon as partial information becomes available for given subperiods months. These conditions appear in a natural way in the prediction of seasonal sales of style goods, such as toys; in the behavior of inventories of goods where demand varies seasonally, such as fuels; or banking deposits, among many other examples. In this paper, the problem is addressed within a cluster sampling framework. A ratio estimator is proposed for the total value to be forecasted under the assumption of stable seasonality.
Estimators are obtained for both the point forecast and the variance. The procedure works well when standard methods cannot be applied due to the reduced number of observations. Some real examples are included as well as applications to some previously published data. Comparisons are made with other procedures. We present a Bayesian solution to forecasting a time series when few observations are available. The quantity to predict is the accumulated value of a positive, continuous variable when partially accumulated data are observed.
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These conditions appear naturally in predicting sales of style goods and coupon redemption. A simple model describes the relation between partial and total values, assuming stable seasonality. Exact analytic results are obtained for point forecasts and the posterior predictive distribution. Noninformative priors allow automatic implementation.
Examples are provided. We give a brief description of the Project and characteristics of the target population. We then describe and use the FGT Index to determine if the communities included in the Project were correctly chosen.
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We describe the method of cost-effectiveness analysis used in this article. The procedure for specifying cost-effectiveness ratios is next presented, and their application to measure the impact of PNAS on Food Expenditures carried out. Finally we present empirical results that show that, among other results, PNAS increased Food Expenditures of the participating households by 7.
The evidence is mostly qualitative, however, since there are no methods for measuring this participation quantitatively. In this paper we present a procedure for generating an aggregate index of community participation based on productivity. It is specifically aimed at measuring community participation in the construction of works for collective benefit. Because there are limitations on the information available, additional assumptions must be made to estimate parameters.
The method is applied to data from communities in Mexico participating in a national nutrition, food and health program.
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A Bayesian approach is used to derive constrained and unconstrained forecasts in an autoregressive time series model. Both are obtained by formulating an AR p model in such a way that it is possible to compute numerically the predictive distribution for any number of forecasts.
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The types of constraints considered are that a linear combination of the forecasts equals a given value. This kind of restriction is applied to forecasting quarterly values whose sum must be equal to a given annual value. Constrained forecasts are generated by conditioning on the predictive distribution of unconstrained forecasts. The problem of temporal disaggregation of time series is analyzed by means of Bayesian methods.
The disaggregated values are obtained through a posterior distribution derived by using a diffuse prior on the parameters. Further analysis is carried out assuming alternative conjugate priors. The means of the different posterior distribution are shown to be equivalent to some sampling theory results. Bayesian prediction intervals are obtained.
Forecasts for future disaggregated values are derived assuming a conjugate prior for the future aggregated value. A formulation of the problem of detecting outliers as an empirical Bayes problem is studied. In so doing we encounter a non-standard empirical Bayes problem for which the notion of average risk asymptotic optimality a.
Some general theorems giving sufficient conditions for a. These general results are then used in various formulations of the outlier problem for underlying normal distributions to give a. Rates of convergence results are also given using the methods of Johns and Van Ryzin. This article examines the distinctive characteristics and features of how both women and men speak. Based on this analysis, the author will make an assessment, and then invite the reader to become aware of their manner of speaking. En el presente trabajo, estudiamos los espacios de Brown, que son conexos y no completamente de Hausdorff.
Escribimos algunas consecuencias de este resultado. Esto generaliza un resultado probado por Kirch en In the present paper we study Brown spaces which are connected and not completely Hausdorff. We also show that some elements of BG are Brown spaces, while others are totally separated. We write some consequences of such result. For example, the space N, TG is not connected "im kleinen" at each of its points.
This generalizes a result proved by Kirchin We also present a simpler proof of a result given by Szczuka in Morsi, A. In recent years has increased interest in the development of new materials in this case composites, as these more advanced materials can perform their work better than conventional materials.
Stemm_es a stemming class for spanish · GitHub
In the present work we analyze the effect of the addition of carbon nanotubes incorporating nano silver particles to increase both their electrical and mechanical properties. The obtained alloys were characterized by Scanning Electron Microscopy SEM , X-Ray Diffraction Analysis, hardness tests were performed and electrical conductivity tests were finally carried out. The salts were placed in the inlet to promote corrosion and increase the chemical reaction.